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It is well-known and inarguable that the gang problem has changed, as well as become more entrenched, over the past 25 years. Media reporting has a natural tendency to cover areas experiencing escalations in gang violence, sometimes directly or inadvertently creating the illusion that the upsurge is widespread and perpetual. A sudden increase in gang activity—in particular, violent gang activity—in a geographic area (., neighborhood) does not in and of itself indicate that a citywide, regional, statewide, or national increase is imminent. At the most basic level, gang activity is localized in nature and tends to follow a cyclical pattern with upswings followed by downturns. Gang violence is best regarded as a cycle that stems from the ever-changing and volatile nature of conflict, rivalry, and competition among local gangs. For example, after a period of inactivity, a mobilizing event such as one gang encroaching on a rival gang’s territory will likely result in a violent event (., a drive-by shooting), which may result in a retaliatory act, and so on. The localized nature of these types of cyclical patterns represents the primary explanation for gang crime and violence across the United States. At any given point in time, every gang-problem city (and gang-problem neighborhood within larger cities) is at its own point in the cycle of gang violence.


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